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What the interviewer is testing
Whether you can adapt the DCF to early-stage or turnaround companies and recognize its limits, instead of saying it cannot be done.
Answer framework
- Yes: a DCF values future cash flows, so negative near-term cash flow is fine if it turns positive later.
- Extend the projection period, often to 10 years or more, until cash flows reach a steady state.
- Model the drivers of the turn: revenue growth, gross margin, operating leverage and capex intensity.
- Calculate terminal value only once the business is mature; most value will sit in terminal value.
- Manage uncertainty: scenarios, sensitivity tables, a higher discount rate where justified, and cross-checks such as EV/revenue comps.
Sample answer
Yes. A DCF values the cash flows a business will generate over its life, so negative cash flow today is not a problem as long as there is a credible path to positive cash flow. The negative years simply reduce value.
The main change is the projection period. For a high-growth company burning cash, a five-year forecast might end while it is still losing money, and a terminal value based on that year would be meaningless. So I extend the forecast, often to ten years or more, until margins and growth reach something like a mature steady state, and only then calculate terminal value. I build the forecast from drivers: customer or revenue growth, gross margin, how operating expenses scale, and capex and working capital needs.
The result is very sensitive, with most of the value in terminal value, so I would show scenarios, such as base, upside and downside, plus sensitivity tables on growth, margins and discount rate. I would also check whether the company has enough funding to reach profitability, since future dilution matters to equity value, and cross-check against EV/revenue or EV/gross profit multiples for similar companies.
Likely follow-ups
Common mistakes
- Saying a DCF cannot be used at all.
- Calculating terminal value while cash flows are still negative.
- Ignoring funding needs and future dilution.
- Presenting a single-point value without scenarios.
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Related questions
Based on questions #32, #39 in the full question bank.