Hard

Can you do a DCF for a company with negative free cash flow?

How to answer it in an investment banking interview: what is being tested, a step-by-step framework, a sample answer and the mistakes to avoid.

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What the interviewer is testing

Whether you can adapt the DCF to early-stage or turnaround companies and recognize its limits, instead of saying it cannot be done.

Answer framework

  1. Yes: a DCF values future cash flows, so negative near-term cash flow is fine if it turns positive later.
  2. Extend the projection period, often to 10 years or more, until cash flows reach a steady state.
  3. Model the drivers of the turn: revenue growth, gross margin, operating leverage and capex intensity.
  4. Calculate terminal value only once the business is mature; most value will sit in terminal value.
  5. Manage uncertainty: scenarios, sensitivity tables, a higher discount rate where justified, and cross-checks such as EV/revenue comps.

Sample answer

Yes. A DCF values the cash flows a business will generate over its life, so negative cash flow today is not a problem as long as there is a credible path to positive cash flow. The negative years simply reduce value.

The main change is the projection period. For a high-growth company burning cash, a five-year forecast might end while it is still losing money, and a terminal value based on that year would be meaningless. So I extend the forecast, often to ten years or more, until margins and growth reach something like a mature steady state, and only then calculate terminal value. I build the forecast from drivers: customer or revenue growth, gross margin, how operating expenses scale, and capex and working capital needs.

The result is very sensitive, with most of the value in terminal value, so I would show scenarios, such as base, upside and downside, plus sensitivity tables on growth, margins and discount rate. I would also check whether the company has enough funding to reach profitability, since future dilution matters to equity value, and cross-check against EV/revenue or EV/gross profit multiples for similar companies.

Likely follow-ups

What if the company may never become profitable? Then a DCF is not reliable; use liquidation value, comparable deals or option-style thinking, and say so.

Common mistakes

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Related questions

Based on questions #32, #39 in the full question bank.