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What is terminal value and how do you calculate it?

How to answer it in an investment banking interview: what is being tested, a step-by-step framework, a sample answer and the mistakes to avoid.

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What the interviewer is testing

Whether you know both methods and their formulas, when each fits, how to cross-check them, and why terminal value assumptions drive so much of a DCF.

Answer framework

  1. Define it: the value of cash flows beyond the projection period.
  2. Gordon Growth: final-year FCF x (1 + g) / (discount rate - g).
  3. Exit multiple: final-year EBITDA (or another metric) x a multiple from comparable companies.
  4. Discount it back to today from the end of the projection period.
  5. Cross-check the two methods and show sensitivity tables.

Sample answer

Terminal value captures the value of cash flows beyond the projection period. With Gordon Growth it is final-year free cash flow x (1 + long-term growth rate) / (discount rate - growth rate). With an exit multiple it is final-year EBITDA, or another metric, x an exit multiple from comparable companies. Either way I discount it back to today from the end of the projection period.

Exit multiple is common in banking because it ties to market valuations and to how buyers think about exits. Gordon Growth suits mature, stable businesses and is preferred when there are few good comparables or market multiples are distorted. Best practice is to cross-check: compute the growth rate implied by the exit multiple and the multiple implied by the growth rate.

Terminal value is often the majority of a DCF's value, so sensitivity tables on its inputs matter. The long-term growth rate should not exceed long-run nominal GDP growth.

Likely follow-ups

If you raise the discount rate by 1%, how much does value change? Example with Gordon Growth only: at a 10% discount rate and 2% growth, terminal value is proportional to 1/0.08; at 11% it is 1/0.09, about 11% lower.

Common mistakes

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Related questions

Based on questions #30, #31, #50 in the full question bank.